After Indiana

After Indiana

Election Analysis 2016

By Dan McDonald

 

          I am trying to adopt a new policy for those who are on Facebook and Twitter with me. I may blog about the election but I will try not to post my thoughts about the election or candidates on social media. I will likely say I have written a blog and if you are interested in my thoughts see my blog. I will likely continue to respond in comment sections with some people on Facebook. Sometimes as an old bachelor I make the mistake of thinking there is nothing more important than theology or politics. But the reality is that when we speak on these subjects we are usually speaking about our opinions where what we believe is better revealed in our habits when the two subjects are never mentioned at all.

            I don’t imagine myself a gifted analyst of elections. I’m a blogger with opinions and maybe a few people will find them interesting. I hope everyone reading this blog can understand and appreciate this. So here is how I look at things now that Indiana’s primary is over.

            For the Republicans, Ted Cruz had pinned his hopes for stopping Trump from winning the nomination outright on a victory in Indiana. Cruz may have even hummed one of the songs from when I was young, “Indiana wants me”, but after Indiana he is giving up. Trump has sewn up the Republican nomination. The GOP establishment, for the most part is now falling in line. Neither Cruz nor Trump represented the establishment, but the GOP including the establishment is in a quandary. When I was a kid there were no Republicans in the South, and now there are few anywhere else. Trump will actually run a closer presidential election than Cruz could have. I was raised in the North and have lived in Oklahoma which is sort of south, southwest, and lower Midwest.  Cruz connected to Republican Evangelical voters which is a big plus in southern politics and mostly a negative in northern politics. Trump will resonate with some independents in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, whereas Cruz would never have been competitive in either state. No Republican candidate since Barry Goldwater has had the negatives like Trump has. But Trump will play the Nixon campaign strategy. Nixon ran to the right in Republican primaries, to the center in the general election, and governed slightly to the left. How Trump will govern if elected I haven’t a clue, but he will pull away from his tea party rhetoric like a lawyer representing his client to the jury he wishes to impress. If anything can be said about Trump he has few core values getting in his way to sacrifice in his bid to win the presidency. That is actually his strength.

            For all the talk of the GOP Establishment being against Trump, mostly they are now publically falling in line with him. But in reality the GOP is in a quandary. Nothing they do makes sense anymore. Mitch McConnell has already guaranteed that hardly any northern Republicans will be competitive in their Senate elections. He is the face of the southern strategy gone awry. His determination to not hold hearings for President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee has doomed most northern Republican Senate and House candidates to defeat in November. Maybe with the nomination determined, the Republicans will back away from their obstructionist policies and cover for their northern allies. Otherwise the southern strategy that Nixon and Reagan employed effectively will have reached its final end of seeing the Republican Party become a sectionalized southern party with a few votes in rural areas where large white majorities that have been voting Republican since 1854. My gut feeling is that if Trump faces Hillary Clinton in November, he will be more competitive in his bid for the presidency than most Republicans running for Senate or House seats in northern and far western states. Barring a Mitch McConnell revelation or a northern rebellion against the party leaders, this year will be a disaster for Republicans outside of the South, Montana, Idaho, and Utah. The Republican establishment will likely support Trump in hopes he goes down in the flames. The GOP is in 2016 where Canadian Prime-Minister Harper was a couple of years ago. They are bracing for the reality of the nation they have lost.

            On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has won another primary in Indiana. On the surface it looks like he has little chance of winning the nomination. He will likely have a majority of delegates outside of the super delegates, but the super delegates appear tied to Clinton. But cracks are appearing. The Clinton use of super pacs to support her presidential bid and downstream candidates within the Democratic Party had won her the support of large numbers of super delegates. But reports are beginning to build that very little of the shared wealth is making it outside of the Clinton election campaign. Reports showing an easy Sanders victory in West Virginia and perhaps a massive Sanders victory in California might lead to cracks in Hillary’s support. At this point a Sanders victory seems unlikely but that scenario might yet work out.

            In my dreams for this election year I had hoped for an election choice of Sanders v. Kasich, simply because both men would have represented ideas about the size and mission of government. They would likely have run somewhat positive campaigns appealing to differing visions of our nation's future. I cannot imagine a Trump v. Clinton election to be an election about substantial visions for the future of the nation. I try to speak little against Hillary Clinton, because my views of her were largely formed in my days as a true believer in Republicanism. Obviously my faith in Republicanism is at low ebb these days.

            This is how I see things now that Indiana’s votes have been counted.